Intel Corporation (INTC)

Conclusion

Intel Corporation, headquartered in Santa Clara, California, designs and manufactures computing products and reports through three segments: CCG, DCAI and Intel Foundry. At a price of 56.28 USD on 6 November 2026, its market capitalisation is 299.1 billion USD.

The verdict is overvalued. The fair value band runs from 10.17 to 15.25 USD with a midpoint of 12.71 USD, giving a margin of safety of -77.4% at the current price. Today's EV/EBITDA of 87.8 compares with a ten-year median of 11.6, and price to free cash flow of 79.4 compares with 17.1. The DCF gives 1.58 USD per share at a discount rate of 17.0%, while the fair value from historical multiples is 23.84 USD. The reverse DCF implied growth is outside the range the model can show, so the growth the price requires cannot be stated. Revenue has fallen at a compound rate of -5.7% over three years and -7.5% over five years.

What holds the case up is the balance sheet: net debt to EBITDA of -1.15, meaning net cash, a current ratio of 2.21, and a Beneish M-score of -2.62, which reads as unlikely manipulation. What would break it is returns and cover. ROIC of -5.4% sits against a WACC of 15.0%, the operating margin is 3.2% against a ten-year median of 23.2%, and interest coverage is -7.8.

Financial health

Financial health is yellow: the balance sheet holds up on net cash, with net debt to EBITDA of -1.15, a current ratio of 2.21 and a quick ratio of 1.55, and debt to equity of 0.44, while interest coverage of -7.8 pulls the colour down. The Altman Z-score is 2.44, in the grey zone; the Altman model was designed for manufacturers, and Intel is one. Insolvency risk: low, about 0.07% by the estimate of the Ohlson model over one to two years. Operating earnings do not currently cover interest costs, so this is the weakest part of the balance sheet.

Earnings quality

Earnings quality is yellow: cash conversion is weak, though several other checks are sound. Free cash flow conversion over five years is -3.3, and the trailing twelve-month figure is not available. The accrual ratio is -0.05, and free cash flow after stock-based compensation is 1.34 billion USD on a trailing basis, with stock-based compensation at 4.1% of revenue. The share count rose at 2.8% a year over five years, so there were no net buybacks. The Piotroski score is 6 of 9 and the Beneish M-score reads as unlikely manipulation. The company beat estimates in seven of the last eight quarters, with an average surprise of 685.2%. Estimate revisions are negative: the current year fell 2.1% over 90 days, with 3 upward and 7 downward changes in the last 30 days, and the next year fell 11.6%, with 12 upward and 8 downward.

Profitability

Profitability is red: every margin and return measure sits below its own history. The gross margin is 40.2% against a ten-year median of 55.7%, the operating margin 3.2% against 23.2%, and the net margin is -20.1% against 16.3%. ROIC is -5.4% against a WACC of 15.0%, and the given ROIC minus WACC value is -20.4%. The five-year median ROIC is 1.3%. Return on equity is -10.5%. The 2025 DuPont split shows a net margin of -0.51%, an asset turnover of 0.25 and an equity multiplier of 1.85. Leverage is not flattering the return here, because the return itself is negative and the equity multiplier is modest. The problem is weak margins and slow asset turnover.

Growth

Growth is yellow: the long-term record is weak, but the near-term outlook shows some expected recovery. Revenue compound growth is -5.7% over three years, -7.5% over five years and -0.5% over ten years. Revenue grew in 6 of the last 10 years. Compound growth in earnings per share is not available. The next-year earnings growth estimate is 20.4%, but this is a forecast, not delivered growth, and forecasts were cut by 11.6% over the last 90 days.

Valuation

Valuation is red: every multiple sits above its own ten-year median. EV/EBITDA is 87.8 against a median of 11.6, a premium of 655.9%. Price to free cash flow is 79.4 against 17.1, a premium of 364.8%. Price to sales is 5.0 against 3.2, a premium of 58.2%, and price to book is 2.6 against 2.4, a premium of 10.5%. The current price-to-earnings ratio is not available because earnings are negative; its ten-year median is 14.5. The free cash flow yield is 1.3% and the earnings yield is -4.0%. The DCF gives 1.58 USD per share at a discount rate of 17.0%, a cost of equity of 17.0% and a risk-free rate of 4.87%. The fair value from historical multiples is 23.84 USD. The fair value band is built on fixed assumptions, including a 5% equity risk premium and capped growth, and is not a price target. The stock has traded in a wide range: it reached 139.63 USD in June 2026 and stood at 56.28 USD on 6 November 2026. The company pays no dividend.

Risks

The weakest numbers would each damage the case in a different way. A negative ROIC means invested capital is not earning its cost, and negative interest coverage means operating earnings do not yet cover interest. Five-year revenue decline suggests the business has not yet returned to growth, and falling estimates for both the current and next year cut against the recovery the price implies. A beta of 2.43 means the share price is likely to move sharply in either direction. Several values are not available: the earnings per share growth rate, trailing free cash flow conversion, the current price-to-earnings ratio and the reverse DCF implied growth. This analysis has limits: it has no debt maturity schedule and no revenue breakdown by segment, so the refinancing risk and the segment performance behind the revenue decline cannot be assessed.