Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL)

Conclusion

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc is a US less-than-truckload motor carrier. It offers regional, inter-regional and national services, along with expedited transport, container drayage and truckload brokerage. At 170.89 USD on 2026-11-09, the market capitalisation is 35.2 billion USD.

The verdict is overvalued. The current P/E of 30.3 is close to its ten-year median of 29.9, while EV/EBITDA of 18.2 is below its median of 19.0 and price to free cash flow of 30.0 is well below its median of 43.5. The DCF gives 87.95 USD per share at a discount rate of 10.65%. The fair value band runs from 106.50 to 159.75 USD, with a midpoint of 133.12 USD and a margin of safety of -22.1% at the current price. The reverse DCF implies growth of 14.7%, against revenue growth of 6.5% and free cash flow per share growth of 10.2% over five years. The fair value from historical multiples is 178.30 USD, a separate figure that does not set the verdict.

What holds the case up: net debt to EBITDA of -0.23 (net cash), ROIC of 27.4% against a WACC of 10.65%, and free cash flow conversion of 101% over the last twelve months. What would break it: revenue CAGR over three years of -4.2%, EPS CAGR over three years of -7.1%, and a Piotroski score of 6 out of 9.

Financial health

Financial strength is green, held up by net cash, a current ratio of 2.04 and interest coverage of 2230.8. The quick ratio is 1.90, net debt to EBITDA is -0.23 on a trailing basis, and debt to equity is 0.0043, all as of 2026-09-30. The Altman Z-score is 20.30, in the safe zone. The Altman model was designed for manufacturers, so it is only a rough guide for a trucking company. Insolvency risk is low, at about 0.02% by the estimate of the Ohlson model over one to two years.

Earnings quality

Earnings quality is yellow. The Piotroski score of 6 out of 9 is neutral, and five-year free cash flow conversion of 72.2% is also neutral. Trailing free cash flow conversion of 101% and a share count that fell 2.4% a year over five years, which points to buybacks, support the rating. Accruals are negative at -6.25%, and stock-based compensation is only 0.22% of revenue. Free cash flow after stock-based compensation is 1.16 billion USD on a trailing basis. The Beneish M-score is not available. The company beat earnings estimates in seven of the last eight quarters, with an average surprise of 4.8%. Analysts raised current-year estimates over the last 30 days (17 up, 1 down), and the next-year EPS growth estimate is 13.5%.

Profitability

Profitability is green. The operating margin is 26.6% against a ten-year median of 23.7%, and the net margin is 20.1% against 17.7%. The gross margin is 32.1% against 31.4%. ROIC of 27.4% is well above the WACC of 10.65%, and the given ROIC minus WACC value of 16.8% indicates that the company creates value. The five-year median ROIC is 29.6%. Return on equity is 24.9%. The DuPont split shows a net margin of 18.6%, an asset turnover of 0.98 and an equity multiplier of 1.30 (2025). Returns therefore come mainly from margins and asset use, not from leverage.

Growth

Growth is green, supported by an EPS CAGR of 11.4% over five years and 15.2% over ten years. The free cash flow per share CAGR is 10.2% over five years and 28.9% over ten. Revenue is weaker: its CAGR is -4.2% over three years, 6.5% over five years and 6.3% over ten. Revenue grew in six of the last ten comparable years. The three-year decline in revenue and EPS is the main drag on the rating.

Valuation

Valuation is red. The P/E of 30.3 is a 1.2% premium to its ten-year median, and EV/EBITDA of 18.2 is a 4.2% discount. Price to free cash flow of 30.0 is a 31.1% discount, price to sales of 6.08 is a 2.1% discount, and price to book of 7.54 is a 5.8% discount. The DCF gives 87.95 USD per share at a discount rate of 10.65%, with growth of 6.5% in the first phase and 2.5% in the terminal phase. The terminal value accounts for 49.0% of the DCF. The fair value band is an order-of-magnitude estimate built on fixed assumptions, including a 5% equity risk premium and capped growth. It is not a price target. The reverse DCF implied growth of 14.7% sits 8.2 points above the five-year revenue CAGR and 4.5 points above the five-year free cash flow per share CAGR. The dividend yield is 0.68%, the forward yield is 0.70%, and the payout on free cash flow is 20.4%.

Risks

Negative three-year growth in revenue and EPS means the price needs a return to growth. The reverse DCF requires growth of 14.7%, well above the five-year revenue CAGR of 6.5%. A Piotroski score of 6 out of 9 means fewer improving indicators than a top score would show. The five-year free cash flow conversion of 72.2% means cash has lagged earnings over a longer period, even though the latest twelve months are strong. The Beneish M-score is not available, so manipulation risk cannot be assessed from the figures provided. The analysis has further limits: there is no debt maturity schedule and no revenue breakdown by segment. The Altman Z-score also reflects a model built for manufacturers, not trucking companies.