The Boeing Company (BA)

Conclusion

Boeing designs and builds commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites and space systems, and supports them through its Global Services segment. The shares closed at 172.38 USD on 2026-11-09, giving a market capitalisation of 136.6 billion USD.

The verdict is fair. Enterprise value to EBITDA of 14.18x sits below its ten-year median of 17.10x, and price to sales of 1.44x sits below its median of 1.90x. Price to free cash flow of 8537.66x is far above its median of 18.30x because free cash flow is close to zero. The discounted cash flow gives no per-share value in the data, and no reverse DCF is available, so the growth the price implies cannot be set against the growth delivered. Revenue grew at 9.0% a year over five years and 10.33% over three. The fair value band runs from 171.54 to 257.32 USD with a midpoint of 214.43 USD, a margin of safety of 24.4% at the current price.

The strongest numbers are ROIC of 27.56% against a WACC of 9.77%, a ROIC minus WACC of 17.8%, and a five-year revenue CAGR of 9.0%. The weakest are the Altman Z-score of 1.50, which sits in the distress zone, free cash flow conversion of 0.2% on a trailing basis, and share count growth of 6.02% a year over five years.

Financial health

Financial health is red, held back by an Altman Z-score of 1.50 in the distress zone, and none of its four measures is assessed as good. The current ratio is 1.13 and the quick ratio only 0.22, so liquidity relies heavily on inventory and receivables. Net debt to EBITDA is 2.21x, interest coverage 4.21x and debt to equity 7.01. The Altman model was designed for manufacturers, and Boeing is one, so its zone applies here. Insolvency risk is low, about 2.0% by the estimate of the Ohlson model over one to two years, based on figures as of 2025-12-31. A low estimate does not cancel the distress reading of the Altman model.

Earnings quality

Earnings quality is red, because free cash flow conversion is 0.2% on a trailing basis and share count rose at 6.02% a year over five years. Free cash flow after stock-based compensation is -322 million USD on a trailing basis, and stock-based compensation is 0.36% of revenue. The five-year free cash flow conversion is not available. The accrual ratio is 0.72% for 2025. The Piotroski score is 6 out of 9, and the Beneish M-score of -2.97 is read as unlikely to signal manipulation. Over the last eight quarters the company beat estimates four times and missed four times, with an average surprise of 274.9%. Estimates for the current year were revised up twice and down eight times in the last 30 days, and next year's estimates moved -47.7% over 90 days.

Profitability

Profitability is yellow, because ROIC of 27.56% is well above WACC of 9.77%, although operating margin is slightly negative at -0.16%. Margins sit above their ten-year medians: gross margin is 9.42% against a median of 5.57%, operating margin -0.16% against -3.59%, and net margin 8.07% against -1.84%. Margin stability is 3.71. Return on equity of 116.9% is inflated by leverage. The DuPont split for 2025 shows a net margin of 2.5%, an asset turnover of 0.53 and an equity multiplier of 30.85. Most of the return therefore comes from the balance sheet structure rather than from margins alone. The five-year median ROIC is -7.26%, so the current level is a recent change.

Growth

Growth is green, based on five-year revenue CAGR of 9.0% and next year's EPS estimate growth of 207.1%. Revenue compound growth is 10.33% over three years, 9.0% over five years and -0.71% over ten years. Revenue grew in six of the ten comparable years. Earnings per share fell at a compound rate of -8.89% over ten years, so the recent recovery has not yet repaired the long-run record. The next-year estimate is a forecast, and the recent downward revisions show it is not yet secure.

Valuation

Valuation is yellow, with the verdict fair. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 14.18x against a ten-year median of 17.10x, a premium of -17.1%. Price to sales is 1.44x against a median of 1.90x, a premium of -24.4%. Price to free cash flow of 8537.66x carries a premium of 465.6% against its median of 18.30x, which reflects near-zero free cash flow. The earnings yield is 5.6% and the free cash flow yield 0.01%. The discounted cash flow uses a discount rate of 11.53% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, starting from free cash flow of -322 million USD, but no per-share value is given. The fair value band runs from 171.54 to 257.32 USD with a midpoint of 214.43 USD, and the fair value from historical multiples is 214.43 USD. The dividend yield is 0.25%, with a payout on free cash flow of 2162.5%.

Risks

The Altman Z-score of 1.50 signals distress and would raise the cost of refinancing if lenders read it the same way. Net debt to EBITDA of 2.21x and interest coverage of 4.21x leave less room if earnings fall. Free cash flow conversion of 0.2% means reported profits are not yet turning into cash, and the negative free cash flow of -322 million USD means the dividend is paid from other sources. Share count growth of 6.02% a year dilutes each shareholder. The discounted cash flow per-share value, the reverse DCF, the five-year free cash flow conversion, and the medians for price to earnings and price to book are not available. The analysis has no debt maturity schedule and no revenue by segment, so it cannot test how refinancing or the individual businesses would affect the figures.