Ball Corporation (BALL)

Conclusion

Ball Corporation makes aluminum beverage containers and aluminum aerosol containers and bottles, selling mainly to beverage fillers in the United States, Brazil and other markets. On 2026-11-09 the share price was 66.81 USD, giving a market capitalisation of 17.4 billion USD and an enterprise value of 24.3 billion USD.

The verdict is fair. The P/E of 32.7 sits below its ten-year median of 36.2, while EV/EBITDA of 15.2 sits slightly above its median of 14.9. The DCF gives 38.39 USD per share at a discount rate of 9.6%, well below the current price. The fair value band runs from 44.92 to 67.38 USD with a midpoint of 56.15 USD, and the margin of safety is -15.9% at the current price. The reverse DCF implies growth of 12.0% a year, against revenue growth of 2.3% a year over five years and free cash flow per share growth of 24.5% a year over the same period.

The strongest numbers are free cash flow conversion of 113.4% over the last twelve months, seven earnings beats in eight quarters, and a five-year share count change of -3.7% a year. The weakest are net debt to EBITDA of 4.3x, ROIC of 6.0% against a WACC of 7.9%, and five-year free cash flow conversion of -1.3%. If leverage stays high and returns stay below the cost of capital, the case rests on cash generation that has not yet shown up over five years.

Financial health

Red, pulled down by net debt to EBITDA of 4.3x, while the current ratio of 1.04, interest coverage of 3.1x and the Altman Z-score of 2.49 are neutral. The quick ratio is 0.60 and debt to equity is 1.27. The Altman Z-score of 2.49 falls in the grey zone, which gives no clear signal. Insolvency risk: low, about 2.3% by the estimate of the Ohlson model over one to two years, based on figures as of 2025-12-31. The balance sheet is serviceable, but leverage leaves little room for a downturn in volumes or margins.

Earnings quality

Yellow. Free cash flow conversion over twelve months of 113.4% and a Beneish M-score of -2.21, which reads as unlikely to indicate manipulation, support the picture. Five-year free cash flow conversion of -1.3% and an accrual ratio of -1.9% are less encouraging. The Piotroski score is 6 out of 9. Free cash flow after stock-based compensation is 602 million USD over twelve months. Stock-based compensation relative to revenue is not available. The share count fell 3.7% a year over five years, which points to buybacks. Earnings beat expectations in seven of eight quarters, with an average surprise of 4.6%. However, estimates for the current year fell 0.4% over 90 days, with four downward revisions in the last 30 days.

Profitability

Yellow. Margins are below their ten-year medians: gross margin 11.6% against 14.9%, operating margin 7.3% against 9.4%, and net margin 3.5% against 5.0%. ROIC of 6.0% sits below the WACC of 7.9%, a given difference of -2.0%, and below its five-year median of 8.7%. Return on equity of 9.3% is flattered by leverage. The DuPont split for 2025 shows a net margin of 6.9%, an asset turnover of 0.67 and an equity multiplier of 3.6, so most of the equity return comes from borrowing rather than from operations. Operating margin stability is 12.8%.

Growth

Green. Revenue compound growth is -5.0% over three years, 2.3% over five years and 5.1% over ten years. Revenue grew in seven of the last ten years. Earnings per share grew faster: 13.7% over three years, 13.5% over five years and 12.7% over ten years. Analysts expect earnings per share to grow 12.1% next year, though that estimate was revised down slightly over 90 days. Free cash flow per share grew 24.5% a year over five years but only 5.3% over ten years, so recent cash growth outpaces the longer record.

Valuation

Yellow. Against their ten-year medians, the P/E is 32.7 against 36.2 (a given discount of 9.6%), EV/EBITDA is 15.2 against 14.9 (a premium of 2.1%), price to free cash flow is 28.9 against 26.0 (a premium of 11.3%), price to sales is 1.15 against 1.39 (a discount of 17.4%), and price to book is 3.04 against 5.24 (a discount of 42.0%). The DCF gives 38.39 USD per share, using a discount rate of 9.6% and terminal growth of 2.5%. The fair value from historical multiples is 73.92 USD. The reverse DCF implies 12.0% growth, against revenue growth of 9.7 points below... [see note] Here the given figure is 9.7% above five-year revenue growth and -12.5% against free cash flow per share growth. The fair value band is an order-of-magnitude estimate built on fixed assumptions, not a price target. The dividend yield is 1.2% and the payout on free cash flow is 35.4%.

Risks

Net debt of 4.3x EBITDA leaves limited room if earnings fall, and interest coverage of 3.1x would narrow quickly with a drop in operating profit. ROIC below WACC means each new investment must earn more than its cost to add value. Five-year free cash flow conversion of -1.3% shows that cash has been volatile, and the recent current-year estimate cuts suggest analysts are less confident. Stock-based compensation relative to revenue is not available. This analysis has no debt maturity schedule and no revenue by segment, so refinancing risk and the mix of growth across businesses cannot be judged.