Wynn Resorts Limited (WYNN)

Conclusion

Wynn Resorts operates integrated resorts in Macau, Las Vegas and Boston (Encore Boston Harbor). The share closed at 86.70 USD on 9 November 2026, giving a market capitalisation of 8.93 billion USD and an enterprise value of 19.49 billion USD.

The verdict is undervalued. Today's P/E of 23.6x sits close to its ten-year median of 23.2x, a premium of 1.9%. EV/EBITDA of 10.8x is below its median of 12.9x, a discount of 16.8%, and price-to-sales of 1.2x is below its median of 2.1x, a discount of 41.0%. The DCF gives 201.56 USD per share at a discount rate of 9.62%. The fair value band runs from 130.61 to 195.92 USD with a midpoint of 163.27 USD, a margin of safety of 88.3% at the current price. The fair value from historical multiples is 124.98 USD. The reverse DCF implies growth of 2.8%, against revenue growth of 27.8% a year over five years.

What supports the case is free cash flow conversion of 183.1% on a trailing basis, return on invested capital of 8.9% against a WACC of 6.3%, and five-year revenue growth of 27.8%. What would break it is weak debt service: interest coverage of 1.9x, net debt of 5.8 times EBITDA and an Altman Z-score of 1.07. Analysts are also cutting estimates sharply.

Financial health

Financial strength is red, because net debt to EBITDA of 5.8x, interest coverage of 1.9x and the Altman Z-score of 1.07 all assess as bad, while the current ratio of 0.91 is neutral. The quick ratio is 0.82. Debt to equity is not available, and the company reports negative shareholder equity. The Altman zone is distress, but that model was designed for manufacturers, and Wynn is a resort operator, so treat it as a limited guide. Insolvency risk: low, about 3.1% by the estimate of the Ohlson model over one to two years, based on year-end 2025 figures.

Earnings quality

Earnings quality is green, led by free cash flow conversion of 183.1% on a trailing basis and 381.0% over five years. The Beneish M-score of -2.33 reads as unlikely manipulation, and the accrual ratio of -7.7% supports the cash behind reported profit. The Piotroski score is 5 of 9. Stock-based compensation is 1.15% of revenue, and free cash flow after it is 607.9 million USD. The share count fell at a five-year rate of -0.5% a year, so buybacks are reducing it. Over eight quarters, the company beat estimates three times and missed five times, with an average surprise of 0.9%. Estimates are being cut: the current-year figure is down 18.6% over 90 days, with 13 downgrades and no upgrades in the last 30 days. The next-year figure is down 17.5%.

Profitability

Profitability is green. The operating margin of 14.6% is above its ten-year median of 12.3%, the gross margin of 37.9% is above its median of 37.5%, and the net margin of 5.2% is above its median of 5.0%. Return on invested capital is 8.9% against a WACC of 6.3%, and the given difference is 2.6%, labelled as creating value. The five-year median ROIC is 9.7%. The DuPont split for 2025 shows a net margin of 4.6% and an asset turnover of 0.53. Return on equity is not available because equity is negative, so the effect of leverage on the return cannot be read from it.

Growth

Growth is green. Revenue compounded at 23.9% over three years and 27.8% over five years, far above the ten-year rate of 5.8%. Earnings per share compounded at 5.0% over ten years, the only earnings growth period available. Revenue grew in seven of ten comparable years. The consensus next-year earnings growth estimate is 18.3%, which is well above the long-run earnings record.

Valuation

Valuation is green. Against its own ten-year medians, the P/E is 1.9% above its median, EV/EBITDA is 16.8% below and price-to-sales is 41.0% below. The DCF uses a discount rate of 9.62%, 18.3% near-term growth and 2.5% long-term growth, and the terminal value is 59.3% of the total. The fair value band is an order of magnitude built on fixed assumptions, including a 5% equity risk premium and capped growth, and is not a price target. The reverse DCF implies 2.8% growth, against 27.8% revenue growth over five years. The dividend yield is 2.0%, the forward yield is 1.2%, and the payout is 25.3% of free cash flow. The currency is USD, so the DCF needs no adjustment for interest in free cash flow.

Risks

The main risk is leverage. Net debt of 5.8x EBITDA and interest coverage of 1.9x leave little room if earnings fall or borrowing costs rise. The current ratio of 0.91 is below 1, and the Altman zone is distress. Negative equity means the balance sheet has no cushion in book terms. The sharp estimate cuts suggest the market is already reducing earnings expectations, which would weaken the case if they continue. Debt to equity, return on equity, price-to-book and the historical median of price-to-free-cash-flow are not available. This analysis lacks a debt maturity schedule and revenue by segment, so it cannot show when the debt falls due or which segment drives the decline in estimates.