Amcor PLC (AMCR)

Conclusion

Amcor plc is a Zurich-headquartered packaging manufacturer that makes flexible and rigid containers, closures and films for nutrition, health, beauty and wellness products. On 9 November 2026 the shares were priced at 45.14 USD, giving a market capitalisation of 20.9 billion USD.

The verdict is undervalued. Today's multiples sit below their own ten-year medians: the price-to-earnings ratio is 19.2 against a median of 22.6, and enterprise value to EBITDA is 7.0 against a median of 13.5. The discounted cash flow gives 58.12 USD per share, and the fair value from historical multiples is 68.90 USD. The fair value band runs from 50.81 to 76.21 USD with a midpoint of 63.51 USD, a margin of safety of 40.7% at the current price. The reverse DCF implies growth of 4.4% a year, while revenue grew at 12.8% a year over five years and free cash flow per share fell at 3.7% a year over the same period.

What supports the case is the return on invested capital of 14.6% against a WACC of 8.9%, free cash flow conversion of 111.5% over the last twelve months, and net debt of only 0.02 times EBITDA. What would break it is the Altman Z-score of 1.40, which sits in the distress zone, the share count, which has grown at 8.3% a year over five years, and earnings per share, which fell at 12.4% a year over three years.

Financial health

Financial strength is yellow: net debt to EBITDA of 0.02 and a current ratio of 1.27 hold it up, while the Altman Z-score of 1.40 pulls it down. The quick ratio is 0.69 and debt to equity is 0.08, so borrowing is small relative to equity. Interest coverage of 3.4x is marked as a watch item. The Altman Z-score places the company in the distress zone, a warning that is weighed against the low leverage. Insolvency risk is low, about 0.9% by the estimate of the Ohlson model over one to two years.

Earnings quality

Earnings quality is yellow: a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow conversion above 100% support it, while the rising share count weighs on it. Free cash flow conversion is 111.5% over the last twelve months and 109.6% over five years, and the accrual ratio is -0.03, which means cash earnings exceed reported earnings. Stock-based compensation is 0.35% of revenue, and free cash flow after it is 1.13 billion USD. The share count has grown at 8.3% a year over five years, so the company has been diluting shareholders rather than buying back stock. The Beneish M-score is not available. Eight quarters of earnings show three beats and two misses, with an average surprise of -0.3%. Estimates for the current year fell 0.7% over 90 days, and estimates for next year fell 3.0%.

Profitability

Profitability is green. The gross margin of 21.0% is above its ten-year median of 19.9%, and the operating margin of 8.4% is close to its median of 8.7%. The net margin of 4.6% sits below its median of 5.4%. The key measure is return on invested capital of 14.6% against a WACC of 8.9%, a ROIC minus WACC value of 5.7% that the company creates value on. Return on equity is 9.3%. The DuPont split shows a net margin of 4.7%, an asset turnover of 0.63 and an equity multiplier of 3.15, so the return is driven by margins and asset use rather than by leverage.

Growth

Growth is yellow: revenue growth is strong, but earnings per share has shrunk over the recent periods. Revenue grew at 17.0% a year over three years, 12.8% over five years and 9.5% over ten years, and it grew in 8 of the last 10 years. Earnings per share fell at 12.4% a year over three years and 4.6% over five, although it grew at 10.8% over ten years. Free cash flow per share grew at 2.1% a year over three years but fell at 3.7% over five. Analysts expect earnings per share to grow 6.6% next year, although those estimates have been revised down.

Valuation

Valuation is green: the verdict is undervalued and the margin of safety is 40.7%. The price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 is a 15.2% discount to its ten-year median of 22.6, and enterprise value to EBITDA of 7.0 is a 48.1% discount to 13.5. The discounted cash flow gives 58.12 USD per share at a discount rate of 8.9%, with 58.5% of the value in the terminal value. The fair value from historical multiples is 68.90 USD, and the fair value band runs from 50.81 to 76.21 USD. The fair value is an order of magnitude built on fixed assumptions, including a 5% equity risk premium and capped growth, and is not a price target. The reverse DCF implies growth of 4.4% a year. The free cash flow yield is 5.8%. The dividend yield is 5.9%, but the payout is 102.1% of free cash flow, so the dividend is not covered by cash generation.

Risks

The Altman Z-score of 1.40 is the clearest weak point: it places the company in the distress zone, and a sustained fall in earnings could make the leverage matter more. The share count has risen 8.3% a year over five years, which reduces the value each share receives from future cash flows. Earnings per share fell 12.4% a year over three years, and estimates for next year have been revised down, so the growth the price assumes depends on a recovery. The dividend payout of 102.1% of free cash flow leaves no margin for a fall in cash generation. The Beneish M-score is not available. This analysis has no debt maturity schedule and no revenue by segment, so refinancing risk and the performance of individual businesses cannot be judged.