Dupont De Nemours Inc (DD)

Conclusion

DuPont de Nemours is a United States company that supplies specialty materials and solutions, including water filtration and separation systems, TYVEK and other engineered components, and products for construction and industrial customers. On 2026-11-09 the share price was 155.14 USD, giving a market capitalisation of 20.56 billion USD.

The verdict is overvalued. The fair value band runs from 52.99 to 79.50 USD with a midpoint of 66.25 USD, giving a margin of safety of -57.3% at the current price. The P/E of 68.3x compares with a ten-year median of 11.0x, and EV/EBITDA of 17.0x with a median of 8.9x. The DCF gives 72.46 USD per share at a discount rate of 10.37%, and the fair value from historical multiples is 60.03 USD. The reverse DCF implies growth of 11.1% a year, while revenue has shrunk at a five-year compound rate of -13.7% and free cash flow per share at -7.7%.

The strongest numbers are net debt to EBITDA of 1.1x, a Beneish M-score of -3.03 that reads as unlikely to signal manipulation, and eight earnings beats in eight quarters. The weakest are ROIC of 2.9% against a WACC of 9.5%, an Altman Z-score of 0.68, and five-year revenue compound growth of -13.7%.

Financial health

Financial strength is yellow: net debt to EBITDA of 1.1x and a current ratio of 2.36 hold it up, while the Altman Z-score of 0.68 and interest coverage of 3.68x pull it down. The quick ratio is 1.68 and debt to equity is 0.23. The Altman Z-score falls in the distress zone, but that model was designed for manufacturers, so it is only a rough guide here. Insolvency risk: low, about 0.2% by the estimate of the Ohlson model over one to two years, based on annual figures to 2025-12-31.

Earnings quality

Earnings quality is yellow. Free cash flow conversion is 293.4% on a trailing basis but only 22.1% over five years, which makes single-year figures hard to rely on. The accrual ratio of -7.5% and stock-based compensation of 0.5% of revenue support the quality of earnings. Free cash flow after stock compensation is 846 million USD. The share count fell at a compound rate of 10.6% a year over five years, which reflects buybacks. The Piotroski score is 5 out of 9, and the Beneish M-score of -3.03 reads as unlikely. The company beat estimates in all eight quarters, with an average surprise of 10.0%. Next-year estimates imply growth of 9.25%, although the 90-day change is only 1.19%.

Profitability

Profitability is yellow. The gross margin of 34.5% sits above its ten-year median of 30.2%, while the operating margin of 13.4% is close to its median of 13.6% and the net margin of 4.3% is close to its median of 4.6%. The main concern is returns: ROIC of 2.9% against a WACC of 9.5% gives a gap of -6.6%, which the model labels as destroying value. The five-year median ROIC is 3.5%. ROE is 2.2%. The annual DuPont split shows an equity multiplier of 1.55, an asset turnover of 0.32 and a net margin of -11.4% for 2025, so the low return is not flattered by leverage.

Growth

Growth is red. Revenue has compounded at -19.3% over three years, -13.7% over five years and -17.8% over ten years. Revenue grew in only 3 of the last 10 years. Free cash flow per share fell at -7.7% a year over five years and -1.6% over ten. A compound EPS growth rate is not available, so the reader cannot compare earnings growth over the same periods. The consensus for next year points to 9.25% EPS growth, a sharp reversal from the long-run trend.

Valuation

Valuation is red. The P/E of 68.3x is a premium of 521.1% to its ten-year median of 11.0x. EV/EBITDA of 17.0x is a premium of 92.1% to 8.9x, price to free cash flow of 23.3x is 135.5% above 9.9x, price to sales of 2.9x is 158.4% above 1.1x, and price to book of 1.5x is 174.6% above 0.6x. The DCF gives 72.46 USD per share at a discount rate of 10.37% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. The reverse DCF implies 11.1% growth against five-year revenue growth of -13.7%. The fair value band rests on fixed assumptions, including a 5% equity risk premium and capped growth, so it is an order of magnitude rather than a price target. The dividend yield is 1.6% and the payout on free cash flow is 36.8%.

Risks

A ROIC of 2.9% below a WACC of 9.5% means that each dollar invested currently earns less than its cost, so growth adds little value until returns improve. An Altman Z-score of 0.68 in the distress zone, combined with interest coverage of 3.68x, leaves limited room if earnings fall further. Revenue has shrunk over three, five and ten years, and the current price implies growth of 11.1%, so a continued decline would widen the gap between price and fair value. The DCF relies on the terminal value for 46.1% of its result. Not available: EPS compound growth, and the analysis has no debt maturity schedule and no revenue breakdown by segment, so refinancing timing and the drivers of the revenue decline cannot be assessed.