Bunge Global SA (BG)

Conclusion

Bunge Global SA is a Chesterfield, Missouri agribusiness and food company that processes oilseeds, merchandises grain and mills wheat and sugar. At a price of 101.18 USD on 9 November 2026, its market capitalisation is 19.4 billion USD.

The verdict is fair. The fair value band runs from 70.42 to 105.64 USD with a midpoint of 88.03 USD, giving a margin of safety of -13.0% at today's price. Against their own ten-year medians, the price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 is above its median of 10.0 and enterprise value to EBITDA of 11.9 is above its median of 8.6, while price-to-sales of 0.21 and price-to-book of 1.19 are below their medians. The discounted cash flow value is not available because free cash flow is negative, and the growth the price implies (reverse DCF) is also not available. The company's five-year revenue CAGR is 11.2%, but its five-year EPS CAGR is -8.5%.

What holds the case up: a current ratio of 1.50, an Altman Z-score of 3.03, and six earnings beats in the last eight quarters with an average surprise of 22.3%. What would break it: net debt to EBITDA of 5.68, free cash flow conversion of -229.2% over the last twelve months, and ROIC of 5.27% against a WACC of 6.35%.

Financial health

Financial health is yellow: the current ratio of 1.50 and the Altman Z-score of 3.03 support it, while net debt to EBITDA of 5.68 pulls it down. The quick ratio is 0.24 and debt to equity is 1.12. Interest coverage is 3.00, which the scorecard rates as neutral. The Altman Z-score of 3.03 sits in the safe zone, though that model was designed for manufacturers and Bunge is a processor, so read it with that in mind. Insolvency risk: low, about 0.6% by the estimate of the Ohlson model over one to two years, based on figures as of 31 December 2025.

Earnings quality

Earnings quality is red: none of its four assessed signals is good, and cash generation is negative. Free cash flow conversion is -229.2% over the last twelve months and -96.0% over five years, and free cash flow after stock-based compensation is -2.75 billion USD. The accrual ratio is -0.08% and stock-based compensation is 0.1% of revenue. The share count has risen 2.2% a year over five years, so there have been no net buybacks. The Piotroski score is 3 of 9. The Beneish M-score of -1.45 reads as likely manipulation. Earnings beat estimates in six of the last eight quarters, with an average surprise of 22.3%. Current-year estimates were revised 0.6% lower over 90 days, with one upward and four downward revisions in the last 30 days.

Profitability

Profitability is yellow: operating margin is assessed as bad, while ROIC sits close to the cost of capital. Gross margin is 5.12% against a ten-year median of 5.56%, operating margin 2.58% against 2.84%, and net margin 1.24% against 1.94%. Operating margin stability is 0.82. ROIC is 5.27% against a WACC of 6.35%, and the given ROIC minus WACC is -1.08%, rated neutral. The five-year median ROIC was 13.15%, so returns are well below their history. Return on equity of 7.11% is flattered by leverage. The DuPont split shows a net margin of 1.16%, an asset turnover of 1.58 and an equity multiplier of 2.80, as of 31 December 2025.

Growth

Growth is yellow: five-year revenue growth is good, but earnings per share has shrunk over every period measured. Revenue compound growth is 1.5% over three years, 11.2% over five and 4.9% over ten. Revenue grew in five of the ten comparable years. Earnings per share compound growth is -22.5% over three years, -8.5% over five and -0.6% over ten. Next year's estimated earnings growth is 16.8%, which the scorecard rates as good, though estimates were revised down 0.6% over 90 days.

Valuation

Valuation is yellow, with a verdict of fair and a margin of safety of -13.0%. Price-to-earnings is 16.8 against a ten-year median of 10.0, a premium of 68.0%. Enterprise value to EBITDA is 11.9 against a median of 8.6, a premium of 38.5%. Price-to-sales is 0.21 against 0.24, a discount of 12.7%, and price-to-book is 1.19 against 1.42, a discount of 15.7%. The free cash flow yield is -13.7% and the earnings yield is 6.0%. The discounted cash flow value is not available because free cash flow is negative; its inputs are a discount rate of 8.9% and long-term growth of 2.5%. The fair value band rests on fixed assumptions, including a 5% equity risk premium and capped growth, so it is not a price target. The fair value from historical multiples is 88.03 USD. The dividend yield is 2.8%, but negative free cash flow means the dividend is not covered by free cash flow.

Risks

The weakest numbers would each cause a specific problem. Net debt to EBITDA of 5.68 leaves little room if earnings fall further, and interest coverage of 3.00 means operating profit covers interest only about three times. Negative free cash flow of -2.75 billion USD over twelve months means any dividend, buyback or investment must be funded from debt or existing cash. ROIC of 5.27% below a WACC of 6.35% means growth currently adds little value. Several values are not available: the discounted cash flow value, the reverse DCF implied growth, the price-to-free-cash-flow multiple and the dividend payout on free cash flow. This analysis has no debt maturity schedule and no revenue split by segment, so it cannot judge refinancing timing or which business drives results.